Last updated at 16:29, Sunday 22nd January 2012

Smart Fink-ing can stop Dortmund

Sam Dymond

Freiburg v Augsburg (Saturday 1430 GMT)

All eyes appear to look no further than the battle at the top of the table between Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayern Munich as the Bundesliga recommences this weekend, but we see the value further down the table in a match of equal importance and are focusing on the bottom two – Freiburg and Augsburg – who will both be hoping to kick-start a survival bid when they meet on Saturday afternoon.

Jos Luhukay’s Augsburg had already begun to make a fist of one. Before the winter break, they lost just one of their previous four league fixtures and that included a pair of wins at the expense of Wolfsburg and the aforementioned Monchengladbach. A total of seven points in that spell meant the Bavarians leapt off the foot, leaving their upcoming opponents in last place.

They will be desperate to avoid an immediate return to the bottom via defeat to their relegation rivals and will set themselves up in their common defensively-minded fashion and look to attack their hosts on the counter.

It’s tactics that are unlikely to add to their one win away from home, with four-goal Sascha Mölders continuing to look their most attacking threat. Only 16th placed Kaiserslautern have netted fewer in the league than Augsburg, who have only managed to score more than once inside 90 minutes on just three occasions.

Freiburg have been able to put the ball in the net on a slightly more frequent basis, often courtesy of the talismanic goalscorer Papiss Demba Cissé. However, the opening of the transfer window was always likely to leave Freiburg vulnerable and Cissé has since moved on to Newcastle. The Senegalese striker was always going to be absent for this coming period due to his commitments at the African Cup of Nations, but his permanent departure could well leave a lasting psychological blow at the Mage Solar Stadion.

Cisse is joined at the African Nations by his former Freiburg team-mate and fellow forward Garra Dembélé, which means Stefan Reisinger could revert to playing the lone front man role when Augsburg visit. It’s hard to see where the goals are coming from in this tense encounter and it’s well worth an interest in under two and a half goals at 10/11 with Paddy Power and friends.
 

Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund (Sunday 1430 GMT)

Hamburg will be harbouring high hopes of a better beginning to the second round of Bundesliga fixtures than the start that left them firmly at the foot of the table back in September. A single point from those opening six matches had the HSV fanatics panicking until the arrival of Thorsten Fink as manager arrested their alarming form, and set them off upon a long unbeaten run.

That original spell started badly on the first day with a 3-1 defeat at Borussia Dortmund, where the reigning champions were revelling in front of a home support relishing a Champions League campaign on the horizon among thoughts of defending their own crown.

It didn’t materialise that way and a month in Dortmund were showing signs of missing the departed Nuri Şahin, having made inadequate starts domestically and in Europe, while struggling to keep hold of their much-admired teenage starlet Mario Götze.

Nevertheless, a fine run of their own - eight wins and three draws in 11 - has placed them firmly back in contention at the top and they are odds-on favourites to complete a double over Hamburg this Sunday. However, they will be without the injured Götze, and possibly goalkeeper Roman Weidenfeller too, for the trip to the Imtech Arena; a ground where the hosts are undefeated in five.

Admittedly, Fink’s side have ridden their luck at times during their revival, and their nine games without defeat have included six draws – a sequence that has impeded a much more dramatic rise up the Bundesliga. Yet, Fink would have utilised the month’s break from action to further drill his team to his methods and Hamburg are sure to have a stronger second half of the season.

There will be a new sense of expectancy at the Imtech and, with a huge crowd behind them, Rothosen can avoid defeat although they may not have the capability to force the win. At the prices available, 11/4 about the draw looks the value play.