Last updated at 14:30, Saturday 28th January 2012

Relegation rivals remain goal-shy

Sam Dymond

Augsburg v Kaiserslautern (Saturday 1430 GMT)

The fine margins can make or break the future. Last weekend, Matthias Ginter got a slender head to Michael Lumb’s cross for an 88th minute match winner and set upon his career path. The 18-year-old wrote himself into Freiburg folklore by becoming their youngest ever goalscorer on debut and, by the Monday morning, he had signed his first professional contract.

Augsburg, meanwhile, were left ruing the late drama which has them contemplating an immediate return to the second tier. The 1-0 defeat at Mage Solar Stadion has put them back on the bottom of the Bundesliga, curtailing their brief run of good form, and yet there is no time for distress. They immediately face a second successive relegation rival in a match of equal importance.

Kaiserslautern are this week’s visitors to the SGL Arena. Marco Kurz’s side stayed in the play-off zone following a fourth consecutive draw at home to Werder Bremen last time out, and they are now without a win in eight. With Augsburg and Freiburg picking up sporadic victories below them, the Red Devils need to retain focus to stop themselves sliding into one of the automatic demotion places.

We were proved right in predicting few goals at Freiburg last Saturday, and the reasoning is worth sticking with in this latest six-pointer at the foot of the table so we’re again going under two and a half goals in what is certain to be another tight and tense affair.

 

Back Under 2.5 goals Augsburg v Kaiserslautern at 13/19

 

Goals have been notably hard to come by for both of these sides this season, and they are comfortably the lowest scorers in the division. Kaiserslautern’s total of 13 is only marginally bettered by the 15 of Augsburg and the pair remain the only two teams averaging less than a goal per Bundesliga game.

An incredible 15 of Kaiserslautern’s 18 matches have already landed the under 2.5 bet, including all but one of their nine away fixtures. The 2-1 defeat at Schalke in October is the single exception and that tie can be explained, having been opened up by the conversion of two penalties and two subsequent red cards.

The visitors will also still be without their three-goal top scorer Itay Shechter. The Israeli centre-forward was dismissed for kicking out at Hannover’s Manuel Schmiedebach before the winter break and serves the final match of his three game ban.

Augsburg’s debut season in the top flight continues to be a struggle epitomised in attack. A host of second-string strikers will be absent this weekend due to injury or national team obligations, meaning they still rely on record-signing Sascha Mölders but, after a quickfire start to his career in Bavaria, the 26-year-old has netted just once in his past 16 appearances.

Jos Luhukay side can be buoyed, however, by the fact that their opponents have conceded exactly one goal in each of their last eight away games to set a new Bundesliga record, a statistic that highlights Kaiserslauten’s propensity to misfire up front, given the regularity of their matches on the road finishing under.

Defeat to the leaders Bayern Munich in November is Augsburg’s only home match in the last five to produce over two and a half, and it’s unlikely that these two goal-shy teams will change that pattern on Saturday afternoon.
 

Also shortlisted:

Augsburg to beat Kaiserslautern 1-0 at 7/1
Under 1.5 goals Augsburg v Kaiserslautern at 21/10
Schalke to beat Koln at evens
Monchengladbach to beat Stuttgart at 9/5